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Rudolf Falb (born 14 April 1838 in Obdach (Styria, Austrian Empire; died 29 September 1903 in Schöneberg, German Empire) was an Austrian popularizer of natural history who concerned himself with earthquakes, meteorology, astronomy and also with evolutionary linguistics. He developed the lunisolar flood hypothesis of earthquakes and volcanism, based on the concept of subterranean lava tides, which the academic community thoroughly refuted even during his lifetime; nevertheless he attained considerable popularity through apparently correct predictions of several seismic events. Falb's lasting legacy is that he popularized the concept of extraterrestrial influences of geophysical phenomena, even though his concepts regarding the origins of earthquakes were wrong.
In 1868 Falb started the popular astronomy magazine, Sirius and began to develop his "lunisolar flood theory", published in 1869.Grundzüge zu einer Theorie der Erdbeben und Vulkanausbrüche. Ed. J. Pock, Graz 1869 A central point of this hypothesis stated earthquakes to be caused by tidal forces acting on subterranean lakes of lava (causing earthquakes) and its upwelling through the Earth's crust (causing volcanic eruptions). The strength of these forces being predictable from the positions of the Sun and the Moon relative to each other, Falb proceeded to postulate "Critical Days" during which geophysical disasters should be more likely to occur. Subsequently he extended this hypothesis, which initially had strong connections to ideas put forward by the French mathematician Alexis Perrey, to include long-term weather forecasting. Falb's hypothesis gained a high public profile when he made predictions that seemed to come true with the 1873 Belluno earthquake and an eruption at Mount Etna in 1874.Gedanken und Studien über den Vulcanismus mit besonderer Beziehung auf das Erdbeben von Belluno am 29. Juni 1873 und die Eruption des Ätna am 29. August 1874. Ed.: Leykam-Josefsthal, Graz 1875
However, the fundamental flaws of this hypothesis were the typical ones that disqualify it as a scientific theory—namely, insufficient specificity and precision of the predictions in relation to statistically expected levels, and inherent irrefutability, the combined effect being non-falsifiability. Falb considered days on which the moon was either full or new or in its lunar nodes (i.e., four days per month) to be "Critical Days." To this were added the days of the equinox (2 per year), and the days when Earth was in the Apsis of its orbit (2 per year). Because Falb proceeded to claim each of these days to be preceded and followed by 2–3 days which he also considered critical (though less so), about a third of all days of the year met some criteria of "criticality" according to the lunisolar hypothesis. Moreover, by stating the actual occurrence of the predicted events not to be mandatory, Falb immunized himself against failures while he could (and would) always claim successes as being in support of his hypothesisBrückner E. Weather prophets. In: The Sources and Consequences of Climate Change and Climate Variability in Historical Times, p. 246–248. Ed.: Kluwer Academic Publishers—a characteristic hallmark of predictions in pseudoscience.
Falb also met the most determined resistance from the scientific establishment on geophysical grounds. Among his most determined and outspoken academic opponents were one of the founders of seismotectonics, Rudolf HoernesDie Erdbebentheorie R. Falbs und ihre wissenschaftliche Grundlage (Wien 1881) in Graz, the director of the Austrian Meteorological Service, Josef M. PernterPernter, J.M. Falbs kritische Tage. Ed.: Hermann Paetel. Berlin 1892 in Innsbruck, and the British inventor of the modern seismograph, John Milne.
This formidable and sustained scientific opposition notwithstanding, Falb influenced public opinion regarding seismic phenomena to such a degree that the two major German encyclopedias - the Brockhaus EnzyklopädieBrockhaus' Konversations-Lexikon. 14th ed., Leipzig, Berlin and Vienna 1894; Vol. 6, p. 535 and Meyers Konversations-LexikonMeyers Konversations-Lexikon, 1888. Vol. 5, p. 737 - both mentioned Falb and his theory in editions published during the late 19th century. He also gained a degree of notability in the English-speaking world. In London Murray's Magazine published an appraisal of his earthquake predictions which was reprinted by The New York Times.The Falb Earthquake theory.
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